Sunday, January 30, 2011

Early Austin Home Pending Trend

I was curious about how the pending sales this year compared to previous years in the Alamo report (Austin Alamo Title).  They don’t use numbers so I thought seeing the trend in pending % changes might draw an interesting picture.  If you think of 2006 as the starting point 0.00%, it looks to me that we are almost back to 2006 pending activity for the same week.  What do you think?


Footnote: Below is a table with the corresponding weeks and the dates they cover.  The week being measured starts on a Sunday so whether it is the end of the year or not, settlement dates can only take place on a business day since banks do not fund transactions on weekends.

*  Week 1: I can see the 2009 and 2010 probably have an extra day since the holiday for New Years Day might not have been on that Monday like the other years.

Week 1Week 3
2007Dec 31 - Jan 6Jan 14 - Jan 20
2008Dec 30 - Jan 5Jan 13 - Jan 19
*2009Jan 4 - Jan 10Jan 18 - Jan 24
*2010Jan 3- Jan 9Jan 17 - Jan 23
2011Jan 2 - Jan 8Jan 16 - Jan 22

Friday, January 28, 2011

Welcome Back Austin!!!

My apologies for the time away from writing but my family suffered a tremendous loss over the holidays and I am just now getting back to a routine.

This morning's Austin American-Statesman article on the front page of the Business section also made me just want to get out and share.  Angelos Angelou, a highly respected local economist who offers annual outlooks on the Austin economy states that we will be at a 6% unemployment rate within the next two years.  If you look back at the graphs I posted last month on the local unemployment trends, you will see that Austin has already been boasting a relatively low rate of 7% last January and 6.6% this January, while Texas was 8.6% and 8.3% respectively.  We have been leading in this way throughout the downturn.  Angelou continues to say that he is concerned about the types of jobs that are being created in the absence of the Sematech chip consortium that recently located, and the downturn of employment at Dell.

At the same time, other sources are citing a very interesting statistic about the Texas economy since the last census numbers were released.

"Today, one out of 12 Americans lives in Texas — the same proportion that lived in New York City in 1930," wrote Michael Barone recently in the Wall Street Journal.

This is amazing to me.  Already the hot-bed of creativity, I think Austin will only continue to attract high end skill to its labor market as entrepreneurs and small businesses continue to relocate for our talent, universities, and natural settings.  When a large organization like Dell sheds highly talented individuals like they have been, many continue to congregate and create based on that experience.  The next two or three years will see the product of this entrepreneurial energy and another round of buy-outs will occur.  It's all good.

Already, from my perspective I am seeing this optimism reflect in healthy activity in the residential real estate market.  An improving economy puts upward pressure on mortgage rates and people who feel more confident about their own employment situation are beginning to make buying decisions.  That confidence will continue to grow through the spring season, and I see us having a more normal seasonal curve throughout the year.  With the hangover of the home buyer tax credit behind us we should also see a more normal mix of homes being sold, across all price ranges.  Homes under $200,000 which normally make up 50% of sold homes but fell to under 40% post tax credit deadline, will make a come back.  The weekly Alamo Title report from this week shows that pendings compared to last year are only down 2.35% ( http://www.alamotitle-austin.com/mls_statistics.php).  That is a good indication.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Austin December 2010 Preliminary Real Estate Stats

From this weeks Alamo Title weekly market update (http://www.alamotitle-austin.com/mls_statistics.php), I see great news for the Austin residential real estate market that is really should be no surprise.  After seeing 10 year lows in residential sales from July through November, December shows a 10% increase in closings when compared to 2009 for the same month.  The income tax home buyer credit that expired last May had pulled many sales in.   Still, sales were ahead for the year by 10% around the August timeframe when compared to the same period for cumulative number of closings in 2009.  But after 5 months of depressed sales in the market, demand began to pile up, and threats of increasing mortgage rates helped people to make buying decisions during the holiday season.  Now with more good news coming down the news wire about an increase in hiring activity early in the year, I expect this first quarter for 2011 will compare well versus non-tax credit years.

ALAMO TITLE'S MARKET NEWS REPORT
JAN 4 2011

New Preliminary December 2010 Data:
Units for Sale: (compared to December 2009)
New listings are down 7.45%.
Pendings are up 1.75%.
Solds increased by 10.53%

As for Average Prices:
The "New Listings" average list price is down 8.78% to $253,934.  In December 2009 the average list price was $278,378. 
Sold average sales prices decreased 4.76% to $246,533.  For December 2009 it was $258,861.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Expect Changes in 2011 Austin Real Estate

Below is news from the Real Estate Center Online News describing home sales for November throughout Texas was down 24%, prices were up.  Expect a change in December numbers.  I expect our sales numbers, especially for the Austin market will be about even.  From July through November in 2010 Austin sales were at 10 year lows after the build up to the May deadline for the $8,000 home owner tax credit incentive.  Although our numbers per month were low, on an annual basis we were ahead of 2009 by 10% when I checked in August.  December will likely breakeven with last year December.  Then, with a bit of optimism in the employment news, I expect January through March to be pretty good compared to non-tax credit years.  We should have some pent up demand, and I have been seeing more substantial job positions posted by local employers.

RECON Real Estate Center Online News  (http://recenter.tamu.edu/recon/)
December 21, 2010 Texas’ November Home Sales Down, Prices Up COLLEGE STATION (Real Estate Center) – More than 13,700 existing homes were sold in Texas last month, according to newly released data from Texas Multiple Listing Services (MLS). That’s a 24 percent drop from November 2009.

Austin 1,345 down 22% $181,300 up 3% 6
Dallas 2,736 down 27% $156,100 up 3% 6.9
Houston 3,905 down 23% $151,000 No change
San Antonio 1,249 down 22% $152,900 up 8% 8
Texas 13,745 down 24% $146,700 up 3% 7